# EV Fleet Charging vs. Diesel: A 10-Year Total Cost of Ownership Model
Comparing the sticker price of an electric truck to a diesel truck tells you nothing useful. What matters is the check you write every month for 10 years: fuel, maintenance, electricity, demand charges, charger upkeep, and depreciation. Here's how those numbers actually shake out.
The Model
We'll run a 25-truck medium-duty fleet. These are Class 6-7 delivery trucks running 60,000 miles a year — the kind of operation that DHL, UPS, and regional distributors run out of depots across the country. Diesel at $3.75/gallon, commercial electricity at $0.14/kWh, with depot charging overnight.
| Line Item | Diesel Fleet (25 trucks) | Electric Fleet (25 trucks) |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicle acquisition | $2,187,500 ($87,500/truck) | $4,375,000 ($175,000/truck) |
| Charging infrastructure | $0 | $650,000 (25 depot chargers + install) |
| Year 0 total | $2,187,500 | $5,025,000 |
Source: FleetRabbit 2026 TCO model [FleetRabbit, 2026], Ekoenergetyka fleet comparison [Ekoenergetyka, 2026].
The EV fleet costs more than twice as much upfront. If you stop reading here, you buy diesel.
Annual Operating Cost
| Annual Cost | Diesel (per truck) | Electric (per truck) |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel/Electricity | $28,125 | $8,820 |
| Maintenance | $12,000 | $6,000 |
| Total per truck | $40,125 | $14,820 |
| Fleet total (25 trucks) | $1,003,125 | $370,500 |
EVs save roughly $632,625 per year in operating costs. The maintenance gap is real: no oil changes, no transmission fluid, no exhaust aftertreatment, regenerative braking that saves brake pads. NREL and CALSTART data consistently put EV maintenance at 40-60% of diesel [CALSTART, 2024; NREL].
The Crossover Point
Year 0: Diesel ahead by $2,837,500 Annual operating advantage for EV: $632,625 Crossover: approximately 4.5 years
After that, the EV fleet pulls ahead. By year 10:
| Diesel (cumulative) | Electric (cumulative) | |
|---|---|---|
| Total acquisition | $2,187,500 | $5,025,000 |
| Total fuel/energy | $7,031,250 | $2,205,000 |
| Total maintenance | $3,000,000 | $1,500,000 |
| 10-year total | $12,218,750 | $8,730,000 |
Electric fleet saves $3,488,750 over 10 years — even with the higher upfront cost and charging infrastructure included.
What Changes If Electricity Costs More?
This model assumes $0.14/kWh. In California, commercial rates can hit $0.25/kWh during peak periods. At $0.25/kWh, the annual energy cost per truck jumps to $15,750, and the crossover pushes past 6 years. At $0.10/kWh — achievable in the Pacific Northwest or with off-peak depot scheduling — the crossover shrinks to under 4 years.
Demand charges add another layer. A depot that pulls 500 kW during a 15-minute window can face demand charges of $10-20/kW, adding $5,000-10,000/month to the electric bill. Load management that caps peak draw eliminates most of that. For more on this, see our guide on load balancing for EV charging.
Incentives Change the Math Significantly
Federal and state incentives can knock $40,000-120,000 off the purchase price of each electric truck, depending on vehicle class and program. California's HVIP program has provided vouchers up to $120,000 for Class 8 trucks [CARB, 2026]. With maximum incentives, the Year 0 gap shrinks to roughly $500,000, and the crossover drops to under 2 years.
The IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026 notes that battery costs declining to $75-85/kWh by 2027 will enable purchase price parity for Class 8 trucks [IEA, 2026]. At that point, there is no crossover — electric wins from day one.
Where It Works Today
The Heavy Duty Journal's analysis breaks TCO parity by vehicle class [Heavy Duty Journal, 2025]:
- Urban delivery (Class 4-6): Already cost-competitive with diesel.
- Regional haul (Class 7): 5-10% premium, parity expected 2025-2026.
- Long-haul (Class 8): 20-30% premium, parity expected 2026-2028.
- Hydrogen fuel cell: 40-50% premium, parity not expected until 2035+.
The Tesla Semi PepsiCo deployment delivered $104,800 annual savings per truck vs. diesel, with a 3.2-year payback despite 2.3x higher acquisition cost [MotorWatt, 2026].
The Fleet Manager's Formula
Here's a back-of-the-envelope method for your own fleet:
- Diesel cost per mile = diesel price ÷ MPG
- Electric cost per mile = electricity rate × kWh/mile
- Annual fuel savings = (diesel cost/mile − electric cost/mile) × annual miles
- Maintenance savings = 40-60% of diesel maintenance budget
- Payback = (EV premium + charging infra cost − incentives) ÷ annual savings
If the number is under 5 years, the business case works. If it's under 3, it's a no-brainer.
Bottom Line
An electric fleet costs more to buy and less to run. For medium-duty return-to-base operations, the crossover happens in 4-5 years without incentives, and under 3 years with them. After 10 years, the electric fleet saves roughly $3.5 million on a 25-truck operation. Heavy-duty long-haul is behind by a few years, but the trajectory is the same. Diesel isn't getting cheaper. Electricity rates in most markets are more predictable than fuel prices. Batteries are improving. The math will only get better from here.
FBK POWER builds modular DC fast chargers and AC charging stations designed for fleet depots. Request a customized TCO analysis for your vehicle mix, duty cycle, and local electricity rates.
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References
- FleetRabbit (2026). EV Fleet Total Cost of Ownership: 5-Year Projection. https://fleetrabbit.com
- Ekoenergetyka (2026). Electric vs. Traditional Trucks: A Cost of Ownership Comparison. https://ekoenergetyka.com
- Heavy Duty Journal (2025). Diesel vs Electric Truck TCO: Fleet Manager Analysis. https://heavydutyjournal.com
- MotorWatt (2026). Best Heavy Duty Electric Trucks 2026. https://motorwatt.com
- IEA (2026). Global EV Outlook 2026: Trends in Other EV Modes. https://www.iea.org
- CALSTART (2024). Manage the Charging for Your MHD Electric Fleet and Save Money. https://calstart.org
- NREL. Vehicle Cost Calculator. https://afdc.energy.gov/calc
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